Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 29.809796 32.016750 34.393878 37.159989 40.310056 43.809781 48.026180
2025-04-20 27.130481 30.226232 33.774895 38.202936 43.668012 50.316640 59.224446
2025-04-27 25.464862 29.074210 33.391474 39.054383 46.479544 56.191600 70.446288
2025-05-04 24.130413 28.069510 32.938933 39.586404 48.752751 61.525789 81.934749
2025-05-11 22.756140 26.842070 32.020249 39.311620 49.779631 65.157566 91.642699
2025-05-18 21.539795 25.694833 31.068594 38.833183 50.371799 68.134135 100.941755
2025-05-25 20.412180 24.571114 30.039207 38.110105 50.457976 70.255029 109.227157
2025-06-01 19.420442 23.558122 29.075568 37.371433 50.394926 72.062624 117.381763
2025-06-08 18.462199 22.532669 28.021770 36.398952 49.830561 72.881357 123.708736
2025-06-15 18.196031 22.428983 28.243016 37.338325 52.451606 79.829295 146.345297
2025-06-22 17.630987 21.877321 27.782489 37.178250 53.185784 83.338178 162.249299
2025-06-29 16.974715 21.165269 27.046050 36.521189 52.970077 84.899452 173.625049
2025-07-06 16.195398 20.269303 26.026814 35.394820 51.901178 84.727773 180.642492
2025-07-13 16.026411 20.236374 26.286816 36.366927 54.786930 93.728804 223.963258
2025-07-20 15.819978 20.135229 26.431741 37.152089 57.425308 102.933871 279.053397
2025-07-27 15.556674 19.935552 26.409032 37.642165 59.546987 111.541060 345.474290
2025-08-03 15.142806 19.493782 25.982766 37.389089 60.108448 116.229372 400.397423
2025-08-10 14.715323 19.014545 25.472991 36.948230 60.217368 119.712914 456.223769
2025-08-17 14.265862 18.486166 24.861090 36.281417 59.761875 121.455688 504.756316
2025-08-24 13.839170 17.978312 24.261253 35.599563 59.203301 122.787058 555.777910
2025-08-31 13.390212 17.423361 23.564834 34.700856 58.073466 122.087766 587.027069
2025-09-07 13.323882 17.449180 23.810725 35.568985 61.081814 135.992677 875.750047
2025-09-14 13.060958 17.162867 23.530589 35.421129 61.690516 141.904096 1116.466779